After two months of net outflow, foreign investors turned buyers in June, infusing Rs 26,565 crore in Indian equities, driven by political stability and a sharp rebound in markets. Looking ahead, attention will gradually shift towards the budget and Q1 FY25 earnings, which could determine the sustainability of FPI flows, Vipul Bhowar, Director, Listed Investments, Waterfield Advisors, said.
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty declined on Monday, extending the losing run to the fourth day amid selling in IT shares and foreign fund outflows. The 30-share BSE Sensex dropped by 247.01 points or 0.30 per cent to settle at 82,253.46. During the day, it fell 490.09 points or 0.59 per cent to 82,010.38 but recovered some of the losses towards the close.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is unlikely to cut the benchmark interest rate at its upcoming monetary policy review meeting, taking place soon after the announcement of the Lok Sabha election results, amid inflation challenges, said experts. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may also refrain from rate cut as economic growth is picking up, notwithstanding the elevated interest rate of 6.5 per cent (repo) prevailing since February 2023. The meeting of the Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed MPC is scheduled for June 5 to 7.
Share prices of Nestle India, Asian Paints, Bandhan Bank, Tata Technologies, AU Small Finance Bank and Avenue Supermarts, all a part of the BSE 500 index, have hit their respective 52-week lows on the BSE in Thursday's intra-day trade after a sharp correction in the equity markets.
The spike in food prices at the onset of the monsoon season has corroborated the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) view that the fight against inflation is far from over, the State of the Economy report of the central bank said. At the same time, the report said that the country is poised to become the fastest-growing major economy in the world, notwithstanding some sequential moderation in economic activity in June. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation rate increased to 4.8 per cent in June 2023, from 4.3 per cent in May, primarily on account of an increase in food inflation.
'If the US stagnates and falls into a recession, the dollar will weaken, oil prices will also dip. This augurs well for India.'
The wholesale price-based inflation surged to more than a decade high of 14.23 per cent in November, mainly due to hardening of prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum and natural gas. WPI inflation has remained in double digits for eight consecutive months beginning April. Inflation in October this year was at 12.54 per cent, while in November 2020 it was at 2.29 per cent. "The high rate of inflation in November 2021, is primarily due to rise in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, crude petroleum & natural gas, chemicals and chemical products, food products etc as compared to the corresponding month of the previous year," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Tuesday.
Retail inflation dropped to 6.77 per cent in October from 7.41 per cent in the preceding month, mainly due to easing prices in the food basket, though it remained above Reserve Bank's comfort level for the 10th month in a row, according to the government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation has remained above the 6 per cent target since January this year.
'If nominal growth improves and earnings pick up, Indian stock markets could see a rally next year.'
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's call for making lending rates affordable may not resonate anytime soon as banks still struggle with margin compression, and await clues from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on liquidity and rate action. Hinting that any lending rate cut was some time away, State Bank of India (SBI) managing director Vinay M Tonse said there was still some aggression in the market regarding deposit pricing.
Retail inflation declined to 6.83 per cent in August after touching a 15-month high of 7.44 per cent in July, mainly due to softening prices of vegetables, but still remains above the Reserve Bank's comfort zone. The overall inflation in the food basket stood at 9.94 per cent in August as against 11.51 per cent in July, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Tuesday. Retail inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 7 per cent in August 2022.
The Indian services growth broadly steadied in May and was underpinned by healthy demand conditions, new client wins and greater staffing capacity, a monthly report said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services PMI Business Activity Index was at 58.8 in May, marginally up from April's 58.7 and signalled another sharp rate of expansion.
'A repo cut will be very good for the market as it will mean that everything is being done to spur growth in these uncertain times.'
In a first, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will conduct daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions on all working days in Mumbai, until further notice. The daily auctions, aimed at easing the current liquidity tightness in the banking system, will begin on Friday, with a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore.
Traditionally, food prices have been seasonal in nature.
GST 2.0 may cushion consumers against US tariffs, but like the 2019 corporate tax cut, it risks being another tactical fix rather than a structural growth strategy, expects Debashis Basu.
'Growth, liquidity and deposit mobilisation are likely to be discussed during the interaction.'
Investors' wealth eroded by Rs 5.98 lakh crore on Thursday, tracking weak trends in equities where the BSE Sensex tumbled 1 per cent. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty declined 1 per cent in tandem with weak global market trends amid growing tensions in the Middle East.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday retained the retail inflation projection at 4.5 per cent for fiscal 2024-25, with Governor Shaktikanta Das stressing that the central bank will have to closely monitor the price situation and keep the "inflation horse" under tight leash lest it may bolt again. Unveiling the October bi-monthly monetary policy, the Governor also said the flexible inflation targeting (FIT) framework has completed 8 years since its introduction in 2016 and is a major structural reform of the 21st century in India.
Wholesale inflation fell to a 4-month low of 1.31 per cent in August due to a decline in prices of vegetables and fuel, even though onion and potato prices spiked, according to official data released on Tuesday. Wholesale price index-based inflation fell for the second straight month in August after it hit a high of 3.43 per cent in May. Inflation in July was 2.04 per cent. In August last year, WPI inflation was (-) 0.46 per cent.
In the urban areas, the CPI rose to 10.19 per cent during the month as compared to 10.10 per cent in July.
Use a mix of instruments that will beat both the wholesale and consumer price indices
While demand for sub Rs 50-lakh affordable housing prevails, market players cite increased land rates, escalated construction costs and low margins as key prohibiting factors.
For the consumer, there would be practically no impact on prices of essential medicines this year.
Expensive food and clothing pushed up the Consumer Price Index (CPI) by 1.18 per cent in August vis-a-vis the previous month, but experts said too much should not be read into the numbers, as the data on retail prices is yet to stabilise.
Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was on a decline since January, before rising again in June. The CPI-based retail inflation was 4.8 per cent in May 2024 and 4.87 per cent in June 2023.
The Reserve Bank of India's rate-setting panel on Wednesday began its three-day deliberations on the next bi-monthly monetary policy amid expectations of at least a 35-basis-point hike in the interest rate to check high inflation. If raised, it will be the third consecutive hike in the repo rate -- the short-term rate at which the RBI lends money to banks. The central bank has already announced to gradually withdraw its accommodative monetary policy stance.
'Investors can consider staying invested in long duration products as there is a possibility of rate cuts in the near term.' Positive macros - lower inflation, high forex reserves and favourable demand-supply dynamics for government bonds - make a strong case for rate cuts from December, says Devang Shah, head of fixed income, Axis Mutual Fund. In an interview with Abhishek Kumar in Mumbai, Shah says this view may not hold true if commodity prices go up sharply.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee attributed the 4.78 per cent spurt in inflation in November to rising prices of food articles. "Inflation has risen high mainly because prices of food articles have gone up," Mukherjee said.
It was 10.56 per cent in December.
Driven by rising prices of food items such as sugar, pulses and vegetables as well as clothing, retail inflation moved closer to the double digit mark.
The government has been stringent with pricing changes. Prices of 651 essential medicines came down from April 1, 2023 by 6.73 per cent with the government capping ceiling prices of these drugs.
Retail inflation rose marginally to 9.84 per cent in September, mainly due to a hike in food prices, particularly of vegetables.
Spiralling prices pinched the pocket of consumer as edible oil, fuel and many other commodities turned dearer this year amid pandemic-induced disruptions but the inflationary pressure is anticipated to ease, though marginally, in the coming months. As consumers, at retail as well as wholesale levels, are willy-nilly learning to live with the new normal of curbs to contain the spread of coronavirus infections, experts are of the view that elevated inflation is likely to stay longer. After dealing with the devastating blows from the second COVID wave, especially during the April-June period, the economy is well on the revival path but the emergence of Omicron might unsettle the recovery trajectory in the short term.
Banks have outperformed the broader market in the past six months and most of the leading lenders have given positive returns to investors compared to a negative return delivered by benchmark indices.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the repo rate cut in the February meeting of the monetary policy committee (MPC) was due to inflation aligning with the target and recognising the fact that monetary policy is forward-looking.
The Reserve Bank of India on Friday retained its projection for retail inflation at 4.5 per cent for the current fiscal assuming a normal monsoon, while emphasising that uncertainties related to food price outlook warrant a close monitoring. Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation has been projected at 4.5 per cent with quarter-wise projections at 4.9 per cent in Q1 (April-June), 3.8 per cent in Q2, 4.6 per cent in Q3, and 4.5 per cent in Q4.
India's consumer inflation should ease in the next two months, and will fall to 8 per cent by the end of the year, says RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan.
Despite gross domestic product (GDP) growth being lower-than-expected for the July-September quarter, the six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may not cut the policy repo rate in the review meeting scheduled for next week due to high inflation in October, according to experts. "Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation breaching the upper limit of the RBI's tolerance band in October (6.2 per cent year-on-year) is not a favourable backdrop for the MPC to commence the easing cycle, even as the growth outcome disappointed the MPC's expectations," said Shreya Sodhani, regional economist at Barclays, who expects the policy repo rate to be kept unchanged in the December meeting.
Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
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